← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6367373
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 99.7%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability99.7%
Bid / ask / mid99.7¢ / 99.9¢ / 99.8¢
Spread0.2¢ (0.2%)
Change 24h+0.10pt
Change 7d+12.30pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 72/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 72% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$86,034
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$26,299 / $19,044
Imbalance72% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score71.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 40 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.15
RSI (14, hourly)40.0
Realized vol 7d1.11pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.