← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6367378
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 98.0%, up 3.9pt over 24h, on a 0.8¢ spread.
Implied probability98.0%
Bid / ask / mid97.6¢ / 98.4¢ / 98.0¢
Spread0.8¢ (0.8%)
Change 24h+3.85pt
Change 7d+20.95pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 96/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$700,039
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$93,512 / $3,213,292
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score96.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 63 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.71
RSI (14, hourly)63.0
Realized vol 7d1.78pt
Change 1h+0.90pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 16h.
Time to resolve0d 16h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.