← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6404224
Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 65.0%, down 13.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability65.0%
Bid / ask / mid64.0¢ / 66.0¢ / 65.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.1%)
Change 24h-13.00pt
Change 7d+5.50pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$899
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$86 / $187
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 42 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.30
RSI (14, hourly)41.7
Realized vol 7d3.59pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 89d 10h.
Time to resolve89d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.