← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6404256
Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 13.0%, up 3.5pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.
Implied probability13.0%
Bid / ask / mid13.0¢ / 17.0¢ / 15.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (26.7%)
Change 24h+3.50pt
Change 7d-13.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$116
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1 / $18
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 77 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.33
RSI (14, hourly)76.9
Realized vol 7d2.17pt
Change 1h+2.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 107d 10h.
Time to resolve107d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.