← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6404258
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the March interest rate announcement?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.6%, up 3.2pt over 24h, on a 19.5¢ spread.
Implied probability15.6%
Bid / ask / mid2.2¢ / 21.7¢ / 11.9¢
Spread19.5¢ (163.2%)
Change 24h+3.20pt
Change 7d-25.55pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 63 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.07
RSI (14, hourly)62.8
Realized vol 7d2.85pt
Change 1h+0.45pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 116d 10h.
Time to resolve116d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.