← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6404292
Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.9%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 7.2¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 14/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 10.0σ — an unusually large move.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 131d 10h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.