← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6404316
Will the Swiss National Bank decrease the SNB policy rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.0%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 9.2¢ spread.
Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid0.7¢ / 9.9¢ / 5.3¢
Spread9.2¢ (173.6%)
Change 24h-0.10pt
Change 7d-4.20pt
Longshot tax-60% historically (0-10¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 4/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$78
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2 / $11
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score4.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 40 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.7σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.70
RSI (14, hourly)40.0
Realized vol 7d0.55pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 131d 10h.
Time to resolve131d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 0-10¢ bucket has returned -60% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.