← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6404317
Will the Swiss National Bank decrease the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.0%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 2.8¢ spread.
Implied probability3.0%
Bid / ask / mid0.1¢ / 2.9¢ / 1.5¢
Spread2.8¢ (186.7%)
Change 24h-0.10pt
Change 7d-3.40pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$78
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $1
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score36.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.80
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.46pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 131d 10h.
Time to resolve131d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.