← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6404319
Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 35.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability35.0%
Bid / ask / mid36.0¢ / 37.0¢ / 36.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.7%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7d+10.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,252
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$49 / $108
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 48 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.52
RSI (14, hourly)47.8
Realized vol 7d3.84pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 131d 10h.
Time to resolve131d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.