← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6404402
Will the Swiss National Bank decrease the SNB policy rate by 50+ bps at the June meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, down 0.6pt over 24h, on a 5.8¢ spread.
Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid1.0¢ / 6.8¢ / 3.9¢
Spread5.8¢ (148.7%)
Change 24h-0.60pt
Change 7d-12.10pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 21/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3 / $2
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score21.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 43 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.77
RSI (14, hourly)43.0
Realized vol 7d1.16pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 229d 10h.
Time to resolve229d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.