← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6404405
Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the June meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 25.0%, up 3.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability25.0%
Bid / ask / mid23.0¢ / 26.0¢ / 24.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (12.2%)
Change 24h+3.00pt
Change 7d-15.50pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,747
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$15 / $24
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 19 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.40
RSI (14, hourly)18.5
Realized vol 7d4.23pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 229d 10h.
Time to resolve229d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.