← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6404508
Will the next governing coalition of Israel consist of Likud + Yashar + Together + YB?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 0.5%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 6.9¢ spread.
Implied probability0.5%
Bid / ask / mid0.5¢ / 7.4¢ / 4.0¢
Spread6.9¢ (174.7%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d-8.55pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 16/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$74
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4 / $8
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score15.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.39
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d1.50pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (100)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.