← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6404541
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of Israel?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 65.0%, up 16.0pt over 24h, on a 14.0¢ spread.
Implied probability65.0%
Bid / ask / mid54.0¢ / 68.0¢ / 61.0¢
Spread14.0¢ (23.0%)
Change 24h+16.00pt
Change 7d+44.50pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,484
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 27 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.45
RSI (14, hourly)26.9
Realized vol 7d3.53pt
Change 1h-2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (100)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.