← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6438436
US imports Russian diesel by January 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 16.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability16.0%
Bid / ask / mid16.0¢ / 17.0¢ / 16.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (6.1%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7d-48.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 51% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$1,271
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,369 / $807
Imbalance51% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 40 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.08
RSI (14, hourly)40.0
Realized vol 7d2.01pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 85d 15h.
Time to resolve85d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.