← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6440136
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by November 30?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 97.0%, down 0.4pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability97.0%
Bid / ask / mid96.9¢ / 97.0¢ / 97.0¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.1%)
Change 24h-0.45pt
Change 7d+6.45pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 61/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 61% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$106
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,783 / $19,900
Imbalance61% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score60.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 14 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.85
RSI (14, hourly)14.3
Realized vol 7d0.57pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 15h.
Time to resolve23d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.