← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6440138
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by November 30?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 89.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.
Implied probability89.0%
Bid / ask / mid89.0¢ / 93.0¢ / 91.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (4.4%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d+3.00pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 71% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$477
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$140 / $224
Imbalance71% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 44 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.01
RSI (14, hourly)44.4
Realized vol 7d0.86pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 15h.
Time to resolve23d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.