← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6440145
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz by November 30?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 94.0%, up 3.0pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability94.0%
Bid / ask / mid92.0¢ / 97.0¢ / 94.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (5.3%)
Change 24h+3.00pt
Change 7d+45.00pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 99% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$168
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$564 / $231
Imbalance99% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.13
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d4.32pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 15h.
Time to resolve23d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.