← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6440146
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by November 30?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 91.9%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 2.6¢ spread.
Implied probability91.9%
Bid / ask / mid91.8¢ / 94.4¢ / 93.1¢
Spread2.6¢ (2.8%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d+27.60pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 37/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 66% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$1,767
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$109 / $256
Imbalance66% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score37.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 76 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.15
RSI (14, hourly)76.2
Realized vol 7d2.04pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 15h.
Time to resolve23d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.