← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6443537
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 22.3%, up 7.7pt over 24h, on a 0.8¢ spread.
Implied probability22.3%
Bid / ask / mid21.5¢ / 22.3¢ / 21.9¢
Spread0.8¢ (3.7%)
Change 24h+7.65pt
Change 7d+10.45pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$16,571
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$246 / $243
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.30
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.83pt
Change 1h-0.35pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 4h.
Time to resolve3d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.