← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6443538
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 21.0%, up 8.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability21.0%
Bid / ask / mid19.0¢ / 21.0¢ / 20.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (10.0%)
Change 24h+8.50pt
Change 7d+8.50pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$11,487
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$373 / $221
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 65 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.86
RSI (14, hourly)65.0
Realized vol 7d0.78pt
Change 1h-1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 4h.
Time to resolve3d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.