← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6443539
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 18.0%, up 7.8pt over 24h, on a 0.7¢ spread.
Implied probability18.0%
Bid / ask / mid16.6¢ / 17.3¢ / 17.0¢
Spread0.7¢ (4.1%)
Change 24h+7.75pt
Change 7d+4.80pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$14,564
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$534 / $269
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 70 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.6σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.61
RSI (14, hourly)69.6
Realized vol 7d0.71pt
Change 1h+0.45pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 4h.
Time to resolve3d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.