← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6443540
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.5%, up 4.5pt over 24h, on a 1.3¢ spread.
Implied probability10.5%
Bid / ask / mid10.5¢ / 11.8¢ / 11.2¢
Spread1.3¢ (11.7%)
Change 24h+4.55pt
Change 7d-2.35pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$7,223
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,443 / $261
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 61 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.06
RSI (14, hourly)61.1
Realized vol 7d1.01pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 4h.
Time to resolve3d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.