← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6468972
Will US gas hit $4.00 (Low) in November?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 97.5%, down 15.3pt over 24h, on a 32.0¢ spread.
Implied probability97.5%
Bid / ask / mid67.0¢ / 99.0¢ / 83.0¢
Spread32.0¢ (38.6%)
Change 24h-15.35pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 97% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$125
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance97% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 31 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.44
RSI (14, hourly)30.9
Realized vol 7d4.66pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 1h.
Time to resolve23d 1h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.