← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6468974
Will US gas hit $3.90 (Low) in November?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 50.0%, up 16.0pt over 24h, on a 53.0¢ spread.
Implied probability50.0%
Bid / ask / mid36.0¢ / 89.0¢ / 62.5¢
Spread53.0¢ (84.8%)
Change 24h+16.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 18% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$85
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance18% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 29 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.15
RSI (14, hourly)28.8
Realized vol 7d5.73pt
Change 1h+2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 1h.
Time to resolve23d 1h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.