← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6475048
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on November 7?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 70.0%, up 26.0pt over 24h, on a 4.5¢ spread.
Implied probability70.0%
Bid / ask / mid59.3¢ / 63.8¢ / 61.6¢
Spread4.5¢ (7.3%)
Change 24h+26.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 28/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$6,837
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$663 / $10
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score27.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 54 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.33
RSI (14, hourly)54.1
Realized vol 7d5.10pt
Change 1h+13.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 3h.
Time to resolve0d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.