← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6475127
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on November 7?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.4%, down 12.2pt over 24h, on a 2.1¢ spread.
Implied probability2.4%
Bid / ask / mid0.8¢ / 2.9¢ / 1.8¢
Spread2.1¢ (113.5%)
Change 24h-12.15pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 40/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$478
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2 / $29
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score39.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 12 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.02
RSI (14, hourly)12.2
Realized vol 7d3.90pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 3h.
Time to resolve0d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.