← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6536879
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on November 8?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.5%, down 12.3pt over 24h, on a 1.3¢ spread.
Implied probability2.5%
Bid / ask / mid1.1¢ / 2.4¢ / 1.8¢
Spread1.3¢ (74.3%)
Change 24h-12.25pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$868
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$14 / $25
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score43.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.89
RSI (14, hourly)24.7
Realized vol 7d4.28pt
Change 1h-0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1d 3h.
Time to resolve1d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.