← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6536930
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on November 8?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.1%, down 0.9pt over 24h, on a 1.9¢ spread.
Implied probability1.1%
Bid / ask / mid0.1¢ / 2.0¢ / 1.1¢
Spread1.9¢ (181.0%)
Change 24h-0.90pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $7
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 44 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.06
RSI (14, hourly)43.6
Realized vol 7d4.73pt
Change 1h-0.25pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1d 3h.
Time to resolve1d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.