← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6563867
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 17.1%, down 19.5pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability17.1%
Bid / ask / mid16.4¢ / 16.8¢ / 16.6¢
Spread0.4¢ (2.4%)
Change 24h-19.55pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$57,093
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,436 / $1,488
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 42 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.71
RSI (14, hourly)42.0
Realized vol 7d5.49pt
Change 1h+3.80pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1d 16h.
Time to resolve1d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.