← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6563898
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 November 2-8?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 5.0%, down 8.3pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.
Implied probability5.0%
Bid / ask / mid5.5¢ / 6.1¢ / 5.8¢
Spread0.6¢ (10.3%)
Change 24h-8.30pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$14,179
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$334 / $624
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score47.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 35 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.12
RSI (14, hourly)35.1
Realized vol 7d2.89pt
Change 1h+1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1d 16h.
Time to resolve1d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.