← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6587453
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on November 9?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.1%, down 5.1pt over 24h, on a 3.3¢ spread.
Implied probability10.1%
Bid / ask / mid8.1¢ / 11.4¢ / 9.8¢
Spread3.3¢ (33.8%)
Change 24h-5.10pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 34/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$370
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$32 / $25
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score33.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 24 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.08
RSI (14, hourly)23.9
Realized vol 7d2.20pt
Change 1h+1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 3h.
Time to resolve2d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.