← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6587458
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on November 9?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 21.2%, up 10.6pt over 24h, on a 3.6¢ spread.
Implied probability21.2%
Bid / ask / mid37.3¢ / 40.9¢ / 39.1¢
Spread3.6¢ (9.2%)
Change 24h+10.65pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 33/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$6
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$73 / $1,186
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score32.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 53 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.16
RSI (14, hourly)53.1
Realized vol 7d2.71pt
Change 1h-1.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 3h.
Time to resolve2d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.