← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6587462
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 9?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 40.0%, up 8.0pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability40.0%
Bid / ask / mid34.0¢ / 39.0¢ / 36.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (13.7%)
Change 24h+8.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 26/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 35% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$262
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,179 / $971
Imbalance35% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score26.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 55 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.29
RSI (14, hourly)55.3
Realized vol 7d1.94pt
Change 1h-2.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 3h.
Time to resolve2d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.