← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6587467
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on November 9?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 11.0%, down 7.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability11.0%
Bid / ask / mid7.0¢ / 10.0¢ / 8.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (35.3%)
Change 24h-7.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 15% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$17
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$198 / $343
Imbalance15% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 42 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.43
RSI (14, hourly)42.3
Realized vol 7d2.82pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 3h.
Time to resolve2d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.