← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6587496
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on November 9?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 99.2%, up 2.1pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability99.2%
Bid / ask / mid99.0¢ / 99.2¢ / 99.1¢
Spread0.2¢ (0.2%)
Change 24h+2.15pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 60/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 68% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$373
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$10,013 / $12,036
Imbalance68% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score60.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 68 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.16
RSI (14, hourly)67.9
Realized vol 7d0.75pt
Change 1h-0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 3h.
Time to resolve2d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.