← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6587498
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 9?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 87.0%, up 8.7pt over 24h, on a 1.6¢ spread.
Implied probability87.0%
Bid / ask / mid86.4¢ / 88.0¢ / 87.2¢
Spread1.6¢ (1.8%)
Change 24h+8.65pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 48% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,722
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,776 / $6,007
Imbalance48% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 63 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.26
RSI (14, hourly)63.1
Realized vol 7d3.03pt
Change 1h-1.60pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 3h.
Time to resolve2d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.