← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6587956
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 20.6%, up 13.2pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability20.6%
Bid / ask / mid21.1¢ / 21.2¢ / 21.1¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.5%)
Change 24h+13.15pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$68,655
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$142 / $191
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 59 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.35
RSI (14, hourly)59.1
Realized vol 7d3.51pt
Change 1h+2.55pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 4h.
Time to resolve0d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.