← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6625206
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 12, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 27.1%, up 14.9pt over 24h, on a 22.0¢ spread.
Implied probability27.1%
Bid / ask / mid24.7¢ / 46.7¢ / 35.7¢
Spread22.0¢ (61.6%)
Change 24h+14.95pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,771
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 65 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.88
RSI (14, hourly)65.2
Realized vol 7d4.92pt
Change 1h-0.90pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 5d 15h.
Time to resolve5d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.