← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6625210
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 16, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.0%, up 4.4pt over 24h, on a 6.6¢ spread.
Implied probability2.0%
Bid / ask / mid3.8¢ / 10.4¢ / 7.1¢
Spread6.6¢ (93.0%)
Change 24h+4.40pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 17/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$28
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1 / $11
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score17.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 58 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.44
RSI (14, hourly)58.4
Realized vol 7d4.26pt
Change 1h+2.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 9d 15h.
Time to resolve9d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.