← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6625220
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 26, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.3%, up 9.2pt over 24h, on a 1.2¢ spread.
Implied probability10.3%
Bid / ask / mid8.8¢ / 10.0¢ / 9.4¢
Spread1.2¢ (12.8%)
Change 24h+9.15pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$512
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$48 / $79
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 65 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.46
RSI (14, hourly)65.1
Realized vol 7d3.54pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 19d 15h.
Time to resolve19d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.