← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6638922
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in November?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 36.0%, up 31.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability36.0%
Bid / ask / mid53.0¢ / 56.0¢ / 54.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (5.5%)
Change 24h+31.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,736
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$78 / $96
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 81 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.13
RSI (14, hourly)81.1
Realized vol 7d4.48pt
Change 1h+7.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 24d 0h.
Time to resolve24d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.