← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6638923
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in November?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.0%, down 18.0pt over 24h, on a 12.0¢ spread.
Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid2.0¢ / 14.0¢ / 8.0¢
Spread12.0¢ (150.0%)
Change 24h-18.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-60% historically (0-10¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$62
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 3 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.20
RSI (14, hourly)3.1
Realized vol 7d4.18pt
Change 1h-9.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 24d 0h.
Time to resolve24d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 0-10¢ bucket has returned -60% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.