← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6638925
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in November?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 16.0%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.
Implied probability16.0%
Bid / ask / mid14.0¢ / 21.0¢ / 17.5¢
Spread7.0¢ (40.0%)
Change 24h+2.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 15/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$57
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$22 / $34
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score15.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 51 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.07
RSI (14, hourly)51.1
Realized vol 7d4.39pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 24d 0h.
Time to resolve24d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.