← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6639462
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on November 10?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 98.5%, up 0.8pt over 24h, on a 1.7¢ spread.
Implied probability98.5%
Bid / ask / mid97.3¢ / 99.0¢ / 98.2¢
Spread1.7¢ (1.7%)
Change 24h+0.80pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 76% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$4,152
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$10,497 / $8,364
Imbalance76% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 51 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.19
RSI (14, hourly)51.2
Realized vol 7d0.38pt
Change 1h-0.80pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 3h.
Time to resolve3d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.