← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6639469
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 10?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 83.6%, up 6.2pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.
Implied probability83.6%
Bid / ask / mid81.6¢ / 81.9¢ / 81.8¢
Spread0.3¢ (0.4%)
Change 24h+6.15pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 54/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$540
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,207 / $7,483
Imbalance16% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score53.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 58 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.03
RSI (14, hourly)57.8
Realized vol 7d3.09pt
Change 1h-0.70pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 3h.
Time to resolve3d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.