← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6658652
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $9.50 and $10.00 on December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 18.0%, down 3.5pt over 24h, on a 25.0¢ spread.
Implied probability18.0%
Bid / ask / mid16.0¢ / 41.0¢ / 28.5¢
Spread25.0¢ (87.7%)
Change 24h-3.50pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,057
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 38 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.85
RSI (14, hourly)37.6
Realized vol 7d5.87pt
Change 1h-3.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.