← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6658653
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $10.00 on December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 26.5%, up 19.7pt over 24h, on a 42.1¢ spread.
Implied probability26.5%
Bid / ask / mid25.1¢ / 67.2¢ / 46.2¢
Spread42.1¢ (91.2%)
Change 24h+19.65pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$832
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 65 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.54
RSI (14, hourly)64.8
Realized vol 7d6.44pt
Change 1h+7.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.