← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6659501
Democratic 2028 presidential odds hit 75% by December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.0%, down 8.7pt over 24h, on a 4.5¢ spread.
Implied probability1.0%
Bid / ask / mid0.8¢ / 5.3¢ / 3.0¢
Spread4.5¢ (147.5%)
Change 24h-8.65pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 28/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,455
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7 / $84
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score27.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 36 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.72
RSI (14, hourly)35.8
Realized vol 7d4.40pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.