← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6659502
Democratic 2028 presidential odds hit 70% by December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 19.0%, down 28.0pt over 24h, on a 36.0¢ spread.
Implied probability19.0%
Bid / ask / mid9.0¢ / 45.0¢ / 27.0¢
Spread36.0¢ (133.3%)
Change 24h-28.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,999
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 45 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.11
RSI (14, hourly)44.6
Realized vol 7d4.30pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.