← Explore · Polymarket · Market 666596
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 82.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability82.0%
Bid / ask / mid80.0¢ / 82.0¢ / 81.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.5%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7d+7.50pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 90% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$334
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$317 / $583
Imbalance90% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 39 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.45
RSI (14, hourly)39.1
Realized vol 7d1.75pt
Change 1h-1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 55d 15h.
Time to resolve55d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.